A Permanent Fracture or a Temporary Blunder? How Latin American Leaders’ Could Signal a Change in Western Hemisphere Politics

Mariana Perera, MSc Political Science, Global Politics.

Trump’s return to office has shaken up world dynamics once again with the continuation of his “America First” ideology. His second term has raised flags for leaders of dozens of countries that are now faced with threats of high tariffs and funding cuts from the White House. While Trump’s attitude is not new, some countries that have experienced a shift to the left in Latin America, especially Brazil and Colombia, have shifted their narrative in response to his policies with a more bold approach.  

Since their respective elections in 2022, both President Lula and President Petro have been critical of the United States’ supremacy in the region. Both are choosing to stand up to what they call Trump’s “bullying,” with the aim of fighting back against his retaliatory economic measures. Their challenge to the relationship once based on supremacy from the United States has led to online discourse full of personal attacks and threats between the leaders of these countries and Trump.

In the case of Colombia, attacks from both Presidents have become more personal and direct; Petro constantly tweets at his American counterpart and in return Trump has announced sanctions against the Colombian President ① for his previous involvement in the M-19, a Colombian guerrilla organization, calling him a drug leader. Their strife can be traced to Petro’s constant criticism of the United States. military and their policies. He has taken issue with their involvement in the fight against drugs in the region, a change in dialogue from his predecessor who had a more positive relationship with President Trump. After a brief dispute in which both leaders recalled their ambassadors and with little resolution to their personal quarrel in sight, one can only expect their relationship to get worse before it gets better. 

The contention between Trump and Lula has taken place largely due to former President Bolsonaro’s trial for his role in an attempt to overthrow the 2022 election. Trump’s support for Bolsonaro has led to him showing distrust for the Brazilian justice system and criticizing Lula’s government for their prosecution of the former President. Though President Lula has thrown attacks at Trump ② calling him out for “emperor-like” behavior, the underlying message has been with regard to the respect and well-being of his country’s economy and sovereignty. Lula has also made it clear to Trump that he is not afraid of working with other countries and does not support his foreign agenda. These threats should come as a warning to Trump’s Administration as Brazil is a key member of BRICS and Lula holds a positive relationship with several leaders of member countries. Thus, a decline or loss in diplomatic ties and partnerships with the United States would likely lead to a stronger trade relationship between Brazil, the largest economy in South America, and countries like Russia, China, and Iran. 

This poses the question: are the binational dynamics between the United States and Colombia and the United States and Brazil facing a permanent transformation? Or will these decades-long relationships be able to withstand the egos and political tactics from their leaders? 

The answer to this will likely depend on the growing relationship with BRICS and the European Union among countries in Latin America as well as results from the 2026 Presidential elections in Brazil and Colombia. If the deterioration in diplomatic ties with the United States continues under future administrations, a perfect opportunity would present itself for a new world dynamic to be established in the trade and economic sector. 

Political experts have mostly focused their discussion around the potential loss of United States support in countries like Brazil and Colombia and how that would impact their economies. However, the United States should also tread lightly in this diplomatic battle, as they have more to lose than basic coffee and agricultural exports. As the United States has de-prioritized their involvement in South America, China has become a prominent partner across different sectors and countries. In Colombia, China is a key player in the development of the Bogotá metro ③, providing trains manufactured by Chinese companies and assisting in its construction through a consortium of companies. As part of their Belt and Road initiative, China has also partnered with Peru to develop a port in Lima ④ that reroutes trade between South America and Asia. Other ways China has found gaps of opportunity left by the United States. include investments in industrial parks and power plants. This further symbolizes a decline in American and Western power with a shift in world dynamics towards Eastern economies. 

Though Colombia’s share of exports to the United States is smaller than Brazil’s, Petro’s interest in growing ties with China and their recent joining of the BRICS-backed New Development Bank shows a change in regional interests and possible replacement of United States economic power. On the other hand, the deterioration of Brazilian power represents a bigger concern to the American economy as they export more than $40 billion to the United States in various sectors. Their role as a founding member of BRICS means they also have the ability to create more trade alliances with other member countries.

This conflict comes at a time where the European Union and Mercosur are also in their final stages of a long-awaited trade deal ⑤ that is sure to change the dynamics in world trade connecting two of the largest trade blocs in the world. This trade agreement would create an opportunity to relieve the concern and whiplash that many countries are feeling from Trump’s policies and possibly leave the United States as a second priority when it comes to trade.

Elections in Brazil and Colombia in 2026 will also be key in demonstrating whether the relationship with the United States will continue down a path of deterioration or if a shift in administrations could signal a return to normalcy in some spaces like trade. However, the way these future leaders respond to the United States will also depend on Trump’s willingness to return to a more positive diplomatic alliance. 

The same way that the election of President Petro showed a change in narrative from his predecessor, a new Colombian president with a greater interest in maintaining a working relationship with the United States could help thaw the hostility created by Petro and Trump. Similarly, prior to Trump’s second term, President Lula and President Biden had worked on re-building the relationship between their countries which had been strained after Trump and then Bolsonaro’s terms. A new presidency in 2026 in Colombia and Brazil may open doors to more diplomacy and less personal discourse between leaders while also helping re-build what may be at a loss in 2025. The outlook on regional cooperation could be more grim if leaders with intense anti-American beliefs like Petro and those with big egos like Trump remain in power and continue bringing petty and personal disputes into their diplomatic work.

While Trump may be playing around and testing other leaders’ limits with his personal attacks via X and Truth Social, his administration will need to consider how much regional power is worth losing over personal disputes. With China on the rise and Latin American leaders that no longer look up to the United States, there is a real threat that a more permanent break in diplomatic relations could lead to a shift in the dynamics across the Western Hemisphere. For now, it seems as though for the United States, the relationship with Brazil may be more prone to a temporary blunder that can more easily be restored while Colombia’s may take a bit longer to thaw back into amicable terms.

Sources

① «Treasury Sanctions Colombian President Gustavo Petro and His Support Network», U.S. Department of the Treasury, 24 October 2025.

② Kara Fox, «Brazil’s President Lula says Trump was ‘not elected to be emperor of the world,’ as US-Brazil spat escalates», CNN, 17 July 2025.

③ Ezra Feiser, «Congested Bogota Brings in China to Build $4 Billion Metro Line», Bloomberg, 18 October 2019.

④ Mia Jingjing, «Chancay Port posts rapid growth as the flagship China-Peru BRI project marks 1st anniversary of operation », Global Times, 14 November 2025.

⑤ «An EU-Mercosur trade deal looks close to ratification», The Economist, 4 November 2025.