The Coming Shockwave: How Lebanon's Collapse Could Ripple Across the Region

Written by Anthony Trad (MSc Political Science, Middle East Geopolitical Specialist)

The story of Lebanon is one of a lost paradise condemned to drift between broken dreams and internal strife. Once a symbol of prosperity and cultural diversity—a mosaic of religions and peoples—this country has become the soft underbelly of the Middle East, sinking into inextricable chaos. A nation that once provided sanctuary to the oppressed and served as a haven for Arab capital in the 1950s and 1960s is now a land of desolation. This "land of milk and honey," mentioned seventy times in the Bible, has become too small to contain the misfortunes of its neighbours and too vulnerable to withstand the ambitions of those who use it as a battleground.

Netanyahu: A Lack of Political Strategy Fuels Chaos

The Israeli state presents itself as a bulwark against the expansion of the “Shiite Crescent” stretching from Tehran to Beirut, passing through Baghdad, Damascus, and Sana’a. Yet behind this stance lies a pernicious reality: every Israeli strike, every military raid, fuels a cycle of hatred and violence that distances Israel from any form of lasting security. These actions sow deep-rooted resentment among survivors of decimated families. With his systematic reprisals, Netanyahu is cultivating an entire generation of sworn enemies, determined to avenge their lost loved ones. Their future, forged amidst the roar of explosions, leaves little room for peace. By stoking the flames of hatred, Netanyahu is already shaping the fighters of tomorrow.

Meanwhile, Lebanon is on the brink of an unprecedented demographic upheaval. Nearly one million Shiites are fleeing the bombarded South, joining the two million Syrian refugees and 400,000 Palestinians already in the country, making up nearly half of Lebanon’s population. This human tide—a mix of war-displaced people and refugees in their own land—will lead to a “great replacement and displacement,” upending the fragile sectarian balance, further marginalising Christians, and collapsing an already crippled state.

The desire for vengeance born amidst the ruins of Gaza, Beirut, or Nabatieh will eventually reach Jewish diasporas around the world, perceived as complicit in the actions of a state deemed oppressive. Antisemitism, which first emerged in Europe last century, is already resurging and prompting an increasing number of European Jews to emigrate... to war-torn Israel! While defending itself after the October 7 massacres, Israel is already paying the economic price of its isolation: perceived as a besieged fortress, the dream of an Israeli “Silicon Valley” is crumbling, with 46,000 businesses closing since October 7 and 60,000 projected by year’s end. International companies will increasingly hesitate to associate with a country now synonymous with permanent conflict. Netanyahu’s legacy will not be one of swift political resolution. So what other solution is there?

The all-security strategy, devoid of any diplomatic dimension, could ultimately jeopardize Israel’s future as well. In his stubborn effort to reshape the Middle East through force alone, “Bibi” is drowning in a strategic hubris as dangerous as it is futile, repeating the American mistakes post-9/11, where the excessive use of force bred disorder and spurred terrorism. By attempting to “de-Hezbollahize” Lebanon, overthrow the Iranian regime, and rally Saudi Arabia through persuasion, Netanyahu is entangling himself in a no-win confrontation. In his quest for immediate security, Netanyahu is dangerously compromising the future of his country and its diaspora, creating a vicious circle of hatred and vengeance from which no one, neither in Tel Aviv nor elsewhere, will emerge unscathed.

A Middle Eastern DMZ: Utopia or Reality?

Faced with the international community’s inability to impose a lasting ceasefire, the idea of a demilitarised zone (DMZ) between Lebanon and Israel—or even between Israel and Palestine—deserves serious consideration. Inspired by the Korean model, such a DMZ would serve as a separation barrier between “two states” while ensuring civilian security through deterrent aerial support and surveillance patrols. The ineffectiveness of the 11,000 UNIFIL peacekeepers, reduced to mere spectators since 1978, illustrates the limitations of such a project if their mandate is not revised. To be effective, a DMZ would require a robust military mandate, technological deterrents (drones, radars), and an intervention force capable of neutralizing any violation, whether from state or non-state actors.

In this context, NATO and European powers must play a central role. France, bearing a historical responsibility toward Lebanon, should take the reins of an international coalition to stabilize its Levantine sphere of influence. However, this involvement remains non-existent, contrasting with the massive effort made by Western countries to support Ukraine. While billions poured in during the first hours of Russia’s invasion, Lebanon, struggling with an existential crisis, is left abandoned. This inaction highlights a glaring hypocrisy: quick to support Kyiv, Europeans turn a blind eye to Lebanon’s plight.

Arab states, meanwhile, are watching in silence, with Mohammed bin Salman leading the way, hoping that a weakened Hezbollah will spare them from having to confront Iran directly—they prefer to let Israel wear itself out doing the ‘dirty work’ while presenting themselves as defenders of the Palestinian cause. In such a context of cynical calculations, a DMZ would only become a reality under the pressure of a joint American-French initiative.

What Future for Hezbollah? Since 1979, Iran has positioned itself as the new “Rome” of Shiism, being the only theocracy governed by a cleric (alongside the Vatican), elevating the Islamic Republic as the protector of oppressed Muslims and champion of the Palestinian cause. Its armed wing in the Levant, Hezbollah, founded in 1982, embodies this regional mission. Abandoned by Sunni countries tired of supporting it, the Palestinian cause has become the quasi-sacred battleground of Hezbollah fighters, ready to die as martyrs on the “road to Jerusalem,” much like the crusaders of old.

Yet Hezbollah is not merely an extension of Tehran; it draws its legitimacy from a deep local anchorage. Nearly 40% of Lebanese belong to the Shiite community, creating an organic link that makes any attempt to weaken it risky, as it could destabilise Lebanon’s fragile balance. A disorderly collapse of the Iranian regime could turn Hezbollah into a militia without a master or political direction, plunging Lebanon into a second civil war. To avoid this scenario, a progressive “Lebanonisation” of Hezbollah appears necessary. Fully integrating Hezbollah into the Lebanese state apparatus would involve incorporating this feared militia into the national army so that the government governs decisions of war and peace.

This evolution, though hypothetical at this stage, could even see the appointment of a Shiite officer at the head of the army, reflecting the country’s confessional realities. However, such normalisation requires prior de-escalation between Tehran and Tel Aviv. As long as tensions persist, Hezbollah will remain primarily a military actor caught between its regional ambitions and local aspirations.

Conclusion

To break free from this deadlock, Lebanon must cease being the sacrificial pawn of foreign powers and reclaim its destiny. More than mere financial support, Lebanon needs a reverse brain drain: a temporary return of part of its 15 million-strong diaspora scattered across the globe—entrepreneurs, experts, military personnel, and intellectuals—to rebuild its army, infrastructure, and political institutions. This initiative should be accompanied by the appointment of a High Commissioner for Reconstruction, tasked with coordinating the redevelopment of destroyed villages and ensuring cooperation between the diaspora, local authorities, and international partners. Weakening Hezbollah, even without its political eradication, could open an unprecedented window to rebuild a balanced and truly representative state.

If this historic opportunity is seized, Lebanon could finally break free from the chains of dependence, shed its image as a country in ruins, and become a model of resilience, tolerance, and prosperity at the heart of a fractured Middle East. For if history teaches us that it is often in the darkest moments that nations reinvent themselves, then Lebanon must seize this chance to rise again from its ashes.