The “Donroe Doctrine” and the Return of Spheres of Influence: The new world after Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela

Written by Logan He, BSc International Social and Public Policy with Politics 

On 3rd of Jan 2026, the U.S. launched Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela and captured the Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, hours after he met up with a senior Chinese official, Qiu Xiaoqi. China expressed their shock and condemnation and called for president’s release ③.  

This article argues that Beijing's generous economic support, while formidable, remains strategically hollow without a military backing. While China might be a banker, it certainly is reluctant to be a bodyguard. By analysing the ‘security gap’ that leaves Chinese allies vulnerable, this analysis explores how the Trump administration’s reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine has accelerated the process of feudalisation. In this context, feudalisation refers to the fragmentation of global orders into a world where superpowers exert total control over countries where the respective countries trade their sovereignty for security ⑯.

The shift marks a return of spheres of influence that once dominated the 19th and 20^th century when global peace was maintained by superpowers carving up the map into several zones ⑮. In this revived order, smaller nations are no longer guaranteed sovereignty in the international system but are at the disposal of more powerful players on the table. 

What is at stake for Beijing?  

Operation Absolute Resolve exposed Beijing’s decade long cultivation of the Venezuelan government which was strategically sharp but lacked a military safety net.  

Chinese involvement sprawled in politics, military, economics, and security after former socialist Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez was elected ④⑤. China became the second-largest trading partner with Venezuela after the U.S., totalling nearly $6 billion of bilateral trade for the first 11 months of 2025, with over 2/3 of the imports coming from oil and oil-related products, where Beijing maintained a substantial $3.8 billion trade surplus⑤. Chinese companies, including Huawei and ZTE, have a large presence in Venezuela, providing the administration with surveillance tools such as the “Fatherland Card,” which is used by the Venezuelan government for tracking voting patterns, rationing food and supplies ⑤. China has also provided Venezuela with an oil-backed loan of at least $60 billion since 2007 ⑤. As an all-weather partner (highest tier in Chinese diplomacy), Venezuela is the biggest buyer of Chinese weapons in Latin America. This information is crucial as it depicts an imbalanced relationship between China and Venezuela. The interdependence with surveillance technologies and cash did provide an extended lifeline for Maduro's dictatorial regime; the massive trade surplus and oil-backed loan ensured Beijing its support in the region. For the U.S., these data are more than just a trade deficit; they are evidence of a meticulously designed system that is immune to American sanctions cultivated by Beijing to construct its base in the region.  

Strategically, Venezuela served as the first experiment for China's broader initiative of de-dollarisation ⑬. By using RMB to settle trade over oil after 2018 ⑤, Caracas didn’t just evade sanctions, they directly challenged the U.S.'s dollar dominance and offered other oil countries a possibility to free themselves from the dollar’s restraints. For Washington, the threat was real as, “the multipolar currency could let the largest oil reserve bypass U.S. sanctions, and make the petrodollar financial structure essentially optional, reshaping market and global economies” ①. 

Was the cooperation purely commercial, where one needed the oil and one needed the cash?  Or was Beijing’s decade-long cultivation to establish a foothold in a Latin America that uses the Yuan to challenge dollar dominance and bypasses U.S. sanctions? The operation has essentially dismantled the Chinese envoy's vision of a "multipolar world of development and peace" ⑪, signaling a profound failure in Beijing’s attempt to project a deeper influence in the Western Hemisphere. How far would the U.S. go to contain its sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere? Answering these questions will be key for us to understand the new global order, which is under drastic change, and making sense of the new boundaries between superpowers. 

Who is Trump’s Target? 

To better understand the strategic logic behind the 2026 intervention, one must look back at the evolution of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. Originally intended as a “clear break between the New World and the autocratic realm of Europe” ⑭, the concept has been radically reinterpreted by the current administration. What has now been coined the “Donroe Doctrine" is an official term embraced by the Trump administration for a provocative projection of US dominance in the Western Hemisphere through direct military and economic measures to counter Chinese and Russian interference⑧. Some policymakers even believed that this is Trump’s legitimate attempt to divide the world up with Russia and China back into the idea of spheres of influence ⑧. 

Stronger control of the area is in the U.S. interest; it provides ample resources, new lucrative goods for American goods, and assures national security. Trump accused Mr. Maduro of drug trafficking, narco-terrorism, conspiracy of narco-terrorism, money laundering, and corruption ⑫. Venezuela was proclaimed by Trump as a threat to U.S. national security. He claims that Venezuela produces most of the U.S.’ domestic cocaine and fentanyl and he “blamed Nicolás Maduro for the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants in the US” ②, statement which remains to be checked. 

Then what is the real problem? Venezuela is believed to have the largest crude reserve on this planet, with the U.S. working on providing licences to allow companies to produce oil and gas as early as 3rd Feb of this year⑩. The U.S. sanctions placed on Venezuela have put pressure on the government in trading petrol with a basket of other currencies, including the Yuan and Ruble, which are believed to have invited U.S. retaliation over the threat of dollar dominance to preserve the status of the greenback⑥.

Future Implications 

1. The Security gap  

With Venezuela being the closest ally of China in Latin America, one would expect a stronger response from Beijing, beyond a strong condemnation. While the USSR was able to place nuclear missiles in Cuba ⑨, China so far has failed to provide a similar level of support to one of its closest allies.  

2. The Chinese backyard  

The second interpretation of the Donroe Doctrine from Operation Absolute Resolve is giving a green light to China to control its regional sphere. Many scholars suggest the Donroe Doctrine may lead to a second Cold War since a sphere of influence has been established with Venezuela being the first sacrifice. Does this mean the consensus is to be built around the idea of a sphere of influence between superpowers that they can freely exert control and exploit from? Would the U.S. do the same if President Xi captured Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-Te?  

3. Those in the middle  

Operation like this threatens not just potential targets but revives the ghost of the 1944 'Percentage Agreement'. This was a secret deal between Stalin, and Churchill to carve up Eastern Europe by scribbling percentages of control on a scrap paper. As James Kynge suggests, we are witnessing the ‘feudalization' of global politics, where superpowers are lords and smaller nations like peasants who have to trade their freedom for protection⑦. For those standing between superpowers, the fear is legitimate. While Beijing remains a reluctant bodyguard and Washington continues to browse international law as a manual for the strong, the rest of the world is really left to wonder if their sovereignty is being sketched out on a used napkin in a secret back room. In this case, the question for nations like Pakistan and Taiwan isn't really 'who's a better ally' but 'when am I getting betrayed'.  

Conclusion  

The abduction of Nicolás Maduro on 3rd January 2026 was more than a tactical success for the U.S.; it was a strategic and a de facto declaration that opened many interpretations and opportunities for both Washington and Beijing. By executing the abduction within hours of a high-profile Chinese official's state visit, Washington essentially presented again its power and exposed Chinese weaknesses in global politics. The incident showed that Chinese economic support is nowhere near a guarantee of its military involvement in Venezuela. As Trump leads the U.S. into a new era asserting its dominance over the Western Hemisphere through his Donroe Doctrine, it has adversely created a new blueprint for Beijing, perhaps long awaited by the CCP. If the U.S. justification of involvement and law enforcement across borders is accepted by the world, then a Chinese involvement over its own sphere including Taiwan and the South China Sea could certainly be seen as a fair game in the near future. Perhaps Venezuela is not simply a fight over oil; it is a country that had to be sacrificed on this new table where China has traded off its economic interest for its geopolitical interests closer to its borders. As superpowers redraw their lines, the question may lie between who is closer, instead of who is better. 

Sources

① P. K. Balachandran,« Preventing De-Dollarization Is Trump’s Aim Both In Venezuela And The World At Large – Analysis », Eurasiareview, 12 Jan 2026 

②Vanessa Buschschlüter,« Why Is US President Trump Threatening Venezuela’s President Maduro? », BBC, 3 January 2026. 

③ Evelyn Cheng,« China Decries U.S. Action in Venezuela — Even as It Guards Billions at Stake », CNBC, 5 January 2026 

④ Asa. K. Cusack,« Reviewed Work: Hugo Chávez: Socialist for the Twenty-First Century by Mike Gonzalez », May 2015.  

⑤  Joseph Federici, et al,« China-Venezuela Fact Sheet», U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION, 13 January 2026 

⑥Osama Bin Javaid,« Venezuela after Maduro: Oil, Power and the Limits of Intervention», Al Jazeera, 5 Jan. 2026. 

⑦ James Kynge,« Attack on Venezuela Highlights Growing US–China Rivalry in Latin America », Chatham House, 16 Jan. 2026. 

⑧Jack Nicas,« The “Donroe Doctrine”: Trump’s Bid to Control the Western Hemisphere», The New York Times, 17 Nov. 2025. 

⑨ Office Of The Historian, « The Cuban Missile Crisis, October 1962 », United States Department of State.

⑩ Marianna Parraga,« US Soon to Issue General License for Oil Production in Venezuela, Sources Say », Reuters, 3 Feb. 2026. 

⑪ Morgan Phillips,« Maduro Met Chinese Envoy Hours before US Capture from Caracas as Beijing Slams Operation », Fox News, 3 Jan. 2026 

⑫ Donovan Slack et al, « What Is Maduro Charged with and What Is the Evidence? », BBC News, 5 Jan. 2026. 

⑬Andrew Capistrano, « Analysis: Oil, Debt, and Dollars: The Geoeconomics of Venezuela», 7 Jan 2026,. 

⑭ Office of the Historian, « Monroe Doctrine, 1823 », United States Department of State.