Is Ibrahim Traore Another Strong Man or a Watershed Moment in African Politics?

Written by Gregoire Welbes, MSc Political Science (Global Politics).

The September 2022 coup in Burkina Faso marked yet another data point in sub-Saharan Africa's troubling pattern of democratic erosion. While we witnessed a wave of democratization at the end of the last century, democratic backsliding has been a defining feature of 21st-century sub-Saharan Africa , with big man politics returning to, or rather, persevering at, the forefront. When a dissatisfied military junta seized power in the Land of the Upright People, shock could hardly be the first reaction. Yet as the months passed and statements accumulated, the blip grew.

In September 2022, then-Captain Traoré and a faction of the military replaced Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, himself having seized power through a coup, making Traoré the world's youngest leader at 34. This move, motivated by widespread discontent over the state's inability to counter jihadist terrorism in the country's north, echoes the political trajectories of neighbouring Mali, Niger, Guinea, and Chad. This immense territory comprising the Sahel has been led by newborn states that have largely struggled to consolidate power and build robust governments. In 2024, the Sahel region accounted for 51% of global terrorism-related deaths, illustrating the scale of the struggle these countries have faced for decades.

However, Traore’s popularity within and across Burkina Faso’s border has been remarkable and departs from a tradition of weariness and discontent with African leaders. He has quickly emerged as the most prominent figure in a new generation of Pan-Africanist military leaders challenging the status quo. Traore embodies a wind of change and hope not only in Burkina Faso but across Africa, at a time where youth dissatisfaction with governments does not cease to grow. Yet, Western critiques have tried to cast his rule as unsuccessful and bound to become another iteration of Big Man politics.

Traore in Practice

“Kill Sankara, and a thousand Sankara’s will be born”. Those were the words of Burkina Faso’s iconic leader. Dapper military fatigues and a glowing red beret are the signature features of both the old revolutionary and the new, the latter marking a clear intention to carry forward a legacy that is herculean to shoulder. The similarities extend far beyond cosmetics: both seized power through coups, both assumed office at 34, and both vowed to fight imperialism. Traoré's political discourse could be lifted straight from Sankara's playbook, ending neo-colonialism, emphasizing self-reliance, rejecting international aid, renegotiating international alliances are all pages from Sankara's track record. Since assuming power, Traoré has endured that comparison and reshuffled the cards: nationalization of mines, severing ties with former colonial power France, and withdrawing from ECOWAS.  

Traore and his government have initiated a series of policies echoing the strong speeches that have so far marked his rule. In agriculture, the state incentivized production through dedicated funding and expanded cultivation, leading to a harvest of nearly six million tonnes in 2024, a significant increase aimed at reducing food import dependency. On mineral resources, Traore has made it a priority to reclaim sovereignty over the revenues and profits of Burkina’s large reserves, especially gold, where Burkina Faso ranks 4th in African production. Since accessing power, the junta has nationalised five gold mines and transferred ownership into the state-owned company SOPAMIB.

The young leader has made anti-corruption another pillar of his rule, continuing Sankara's war on governmental graft. He established the Commission for the Regulation of Dysfunctions in July 2024 and empowered the High Authority for State Control and Anti-Corruption, which identified over $59 million in losses from corruption and referred twelve major cases for prosecution.

Anti-imperialism and anti-neocolonialism are not just stylistic tools to gather support, but they constitute the bedrock of the path Traore, and his government are leading Burkina Faso on. From replacing Africa’s role during the Second World War, to an ardent critique of French foreign affairs in the region, the captain has made clear his ideology on international relations and his beliefs on the West, illustrated by the forced exit of French troops stationed in the country. Traore has thus abided by his own advice to “stop behaving like [a] puppet ". Through the application of his own doctrine, online presence, and inflammatory speeches, Traore has become the de facto forebearer of this anti-imperialist wind sweeping through sub-Saharan Africa, a role no African statesman has managed to embody in this century.

Answering Critiques

Yet after three years at the helm, critical voices have emerged questioning Traoré’s leadership and whether he represents a break from traditional big man politics. While questions surrounding his rule cut through the sensational popularity he has enjoyed across the continent, they hardly form a strong basis for opposition.

The most salient critique regarding his rule pertains to the increase in terrorist violence since his accession to power. Observers point out that, despite the coup being premised on the containment of violence, the opposite has in fact occurred. The security situation has indeed worsened, with deaths from Islamist forces tripled since accessing to power, violence increased 46%, more than two million people have been internally displaced, and 40% of the nation’s territory is now at the hands of Jihadists. However, though compelling, this line of argument is hardly defendable. Terrorism in the region has been present since decolonization in the 1960s, and international missions like those led by France did not stop the threat. Hence, a newly formed government, with one of the world’s weakest economies, simultaneously fights a highly mobile organisation in an extremely complex topological system, with high chances to fail. Nevertheless, though they have yet to translate into positive outcomes, Traore has initiated ambitious policies to regain control. To ramp up its fight against terrorism, the government has invoked general mobilization through a civilian militia force called Volontaires pour la Défense de la Patrie (VDP) has garnered more than 90,000 fighters. Additionally, Traore formalised its partnership with Mali and Niger as the three countries formed the Alliance of Sahel States in September of 2023, later becoming a confederation. While security has not yet improved, Burkina Faso has taken the steps to help secure the Sahel in the long-term, but expectations of immediate impact do not constitute a realistic assessment of the situation.

Similarly, detractors have been quick to point out the democratic backsliding occurring in the country based on the extension of Traoré’s mandate to 2029 despite promises to restore democracy by 2024. Yet, these democratic concerns which have been extended to a variety of other African nations completely overlook the circumstances pertaining to governance in the region. While most African polities fail to meet these standards, Burkina Faso is nowhere near meeting the topological, geographical, demographic, historical, and socio-economic conditions that would warrant a successful democracy. This democratic expectation represents nothing more but a Eurocentric vision of governance, one that is simply not possible in the country’s current conditions.

Expecting a country whose nascence occurred after the Second World War, with deep ethnic divisions, and a land torn by terrorist incursions to be democratic is simply folly, all the while Traore’s legitimacy sits deeper than that of most Western leaders, with 66% of the population supporting his rule. This approval transcends manufactured propaganda; it eclipses our traditional ideas of African politics. The question is not whether Traoré is a democrat or dictator, but whether the categories themselves adequately fit governance in states fighting for survival. African solutions to African problems might require abandoning templates designed for European nation-states that never faced comparable existential threats during their own democratic consolidations.

Conclusion

The case for Traoré as merely another iteration of a Big Man is compelling at first, but this categorisation is not only dismissive but hides the developments occurring on the ground. Classifying Traoré yet another dictator in a revolutionary apparatus ignores the real substance beneath the symbolism and the break with tradition his rule represents. Traore seems to have made big strides in his objectives and has managed to solidify an unprecedented base of support within and beyond Burkina Faso’s borders. Unlike many African leaders, Traoré has so far kept his promise and dignity, in ending imperialism and neo-colonialism. These are not rhetorical roses but real breaks from patterns that have structured Sahelian politics for six decades, and they carry economic and diplomatic costs that a purely cynical opportunist might hesitate to bear.

Two concerns do however remain unanswered, economic independence and foreign influence. Traore’s foreign affairs decisions have made a sizeable dent into public finances, and assistance is needed. However, who is to provide this assistance, if it is even provided? Whether it be China, Russia, or any other state, the issue remains the necessity for this very assistance. In receiving foreign aid packages or loans, Traore would jeopardize his rhetoric of autonomy and anti-imperialism. The need for aid, which does not seem to wane as the months go by, represents a threat to Traore’s ambitions and it seems as though it will be incredibly difficult to fill that gap without giving in to external influence. Similarly, since the departure of French forces, Burkinabé authorities and military personnel have turned to a new ally, Russia’s Wagner militia, to offer military training, support, and intelligence. Considering Wagner’s track record in the region, this cooperation pact could easily backfire. This newfound alliance also questions Traore’s commitment to the anti-imperialist rhetoric that has been central to his rule. Not only has the leader publicly appeared with Vladimir Putin and iterated his support for the Russian Federation’s actions in Ukraine, but Wagner’s payment has come in the form of access to gold mines, reversing some of the very policies that have made him so celebrated

Nevertheless, while the passions arising around Traore’s rule are legitimate and founded when examining his track record, the true test for what his legacy will become is ineluctably time. The positivism surrounding him is however certainly refreshing, and his rule provides hope for a new era of African leaders.